Commissions
- Feb 24, 1989
- United States
- Deviant for 15 years
- The Second Renaissance
- He / Him
I'm an actual rocket scientist (Aerospace Engineer), but when I'm not doing that I'm making maps and flags of worlds that never were and have yet to be.
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Profile Comments 11.1K
You know what’s funny? Is how back in 2016 a lot of people thought Trump wasn’t going to become president. He did, and now that I’m seeing comparisons in where people are making Assumptions on AOC on how also how she’s not gonna win in 2028. God forbid Unpredictablity and element of surprise is what always wins lol
NBC News is reporting that AOC will sit on two panels at the Munich Security Conference. The topics focus on the “rise of populism” and another on the “future of U.S. foreign policy,” according to her office. NBC is also reporting that those close to her say she's leaning toward running for President in 2028 rather than running for the Senate.
In the last election, Harris had to deal with a racial and gender gap and faced defections from white women and Hispanic men, although there was an education gap as well. Do you expect Cortez to face similar defections or have Trump's actions all but handed them to the Democrats?
I think she'll face defections, just not on the same scale. And at this point I think there's a very good chance that the MAGA Republicans will perform about as well as the Southern Democrats in 1860 when they run in 2028 (overperformance in the Electoral College despite an abysmal showing in the popular vote).
If we're lucky, they'll have destroyed their credibility to such a degree that even the prospect of a Hispanic Woman winning the Presidency won't be enough for them to rally the troops as it were. We'll see, at most, a propped up White Christian Nationalist quasi-state in the South and/or Mountain West backed by a handful of billionaires.
If we're unlucky, the electoral math won't favor the GOP, but the % of armed citizens on still on their side (supported by praetorians) will still be high enough to grab critical supplies and territory to support a pretender government, even if it could only last a few years.
Right now Democrats are overperforming like crazy in a handful of races (30+ point wins), and slightly less crazy in major off-year elections (12-16 point wins).
Even the latter only represents an ~65-35 split to the Dems favor, meaning that the Republican base hasn't broken yet. That would lead to a DEVASTATING midterm for the Republicans. BUT, it would still signal that Trump’s die hard base of supporters have not abandoned him. That's still about 53 million people, disproportionately armed, and more politically motivated than almost any demographic. If even 4% of them are willing to take up arms, that'd be a force as big as the entire US military.
So while I'm more optimistic as of late that we might actually find a way out of this after 2026, there's a reason I seldom go above 50/50 on the odds that we avoid a CCH scenario.
I expect the latter.