It's time again for my Oscar predictions. Note that these are who I think WILL win, not necessarily who I think SHOULD win.
Best pictureRomaRoma is the film to beat in this category. That said, the fact that it didn't win the PGA (which also uses a preferential ballot), the fact that it would be the first time a non-English spoken film would win, and that Netflix is behind it, makes me very unsure. The precursors have been all over the place, with
Green Book taking the PGA,
Black Panther getting the SAG and the WGA going for
Eight Grade. But going for the favorite rarely disappoints at the Oscar and with a 6/9 streak for the DGA/BAFTA combination history will probably be made.
Best actor
Rami MalekHaven't seen
Bohemian Rhapsody, but I've heard Malek is excellent in it. He's won most of the precursors, and a win seems pretty much guaranteed.
Best actressGlenn Close
This is the seventh time that Close is nominated, and everything points to that this will be the year she brings home the Oscar. Her only real competition is Olivia Colman (who's really excellent in
The Favorite and won the BAFTA), but probably not enough to overcome the combination of beloved actress + it's her time + all the rest of the precursors.
Best supporting actorMahershala AliAli has swept all of the precursors and basically only has two things against him. That he won the same category two years ago, and that Richard E. Grant is well-liked actor that has never won anything for his often excellent work. But odds are that Ali takes home his second Oscar.
Best supporting actressR
egina King
This one is tricky. Regina King looked pretty much unbeatable after winning the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice, but then wasn't nominated by SAG and lost to Rachel Weisz at the BAFTAs. But then SAG Award went to non Oscar nominated Emily Blunt, thereby throwing it completely open.
Best directorAlfonso Cuarón, RomaThis category has just been totally dominated by Mexicans the last couple of years, with Cuarón, Iñárritu and del Toro taking turns winning it. If there's an upset it will be Spike Lee finally winning an Oscar, but don't count on it.
Original screenplayThe FavoriteThis is an interesting category. It's mostly down to either
Green Book or
The Favorite, and will give a hint on how the evening will turn out. If
Green Book wins, it will probably go on to win Best Picture.
Adapted screenplayBlacKkKlansmanThis one is all over the map.
BlacKkKlansman won BAFTA,
If Beale Street Could Talk won Critic's Choice and then the WGA went to
Can You Ever Forgive Me? The Academy has a tendency to award more hipper auteurs here that are a little to daring for the more mayor awards, which is why I think Spike Lee will win.
Best animated featureSpider-Man: Into the Spider-VerseThis one usually goes to either the Pixar or Disney movie, no matter which movie deserves the award the most, and it's hard to argue that the highest grossing animated feature of all time
Incredibles 2, from two time Oscar-winner Brad Bird wouldn't normally be the favorite. But against it is that the Academy doesn't like to award sequels (
Toy Story 3 is the only sequel to have won), Brad Bird already has two Oscars, and the momentum is firmly on Spider-Verse's side.
Foreign language featureRomaThis one comes down to how sure the voters are that
Roma will win Best Picture. If they're pretty certain, expect
Cold War to win, if they're in doubt they'll probably make sure that
Roma at least wins this one.
CinematographyRomaThe duel of the black and white movies. While Łukasz Żal won the ASC for
Cold War, it's looking more likely that Alfonso Cuarón will become historic as the first director to win for shooting his own film.
Film editingBohemian RhapsodyThis category basically boils down to two choices. The more flashy editing of
Vice, with lots of crosscutting, or the narrative that John Ottman saved the movie after Bryan Singer was fired. I'm leaning towards the latter.
Production designThe FavoriteAnother hard one. The Academy loves costumed period dramas and the costumes in
The Favorite are gorgeous and just exactly the type of movie they love to award. That said,
Black Panther makes a non-existing place look like a real place with history. Looking at the precursors doesn't really help, the ADG and CDG chose to award both. Often the same movie wins both production and costume design, but I'm gonna go for a split choice. Either way I'll at least get one of them right.
Costume designBlack PantherMakeup and HairstylingViceThis usually goes to the movie with the most extravagant work, with a bonus to the nominee that's also nominated to Best Picture. It's hard to see how
Vice doesn't win for transforming Christian Bale to eerily like Dick Cheney.
MusicIf Beale Street Could TalkA fairly open category. Best Picture nominees have a slight advantage, which means
BlacKkKlansman and
Black Panther. That said,
If Beale Street Could Talk seems to be the most talked about soundtrack.
Original songShallow, A Star Is BornYeah, this one's pretty given.
Sound editingA Quiet PlaceSound editing is creating all of the sounds that are often missing from the recorded sound. The difference between this and Sound Mixing is often a bit diffuse. This one is really tricky.
First Man is the kind of movie that usually would win,
A Quiet Place makes you really aware of each and every sound, and
Black Panther is a Best Picture nominee and the closest you get to a war movie. One of these will almost certainly win, but picking the right one is a guess work.
Sound mixingBohemian RhapsodySound mixing is taking all the dialogue recorded, music, sound effects and so on, and mixing it together to a whole. This one almost always goes to a war film or a musical. Since there's no war movie this year,
Bohemian Rhapsody is the closest.
Visual effectsAvengers: Infinity War
Honestly,
Avengers: Infinity War should be the winner here, with several fully realized CGI characters, complex battle scenes, loads of environments and you know, that scene. It also won the Visual Effects Society top price. However, a superhero movie has not won this category since
Spider-Man 2, which gives me pause.
Best documentaryFree SoloIt comes down to either
RBG or
Free Solo in this category, with very little to go on from the precursors since they mostly went to
Won't You Be My Neighbor? RBG has a very topical subject, and with Ruth Bader Ginsburg getting hospitalized in the middle of the voting period, this is sure to get a lot of votes. But
Free Solo is much more cinematic and with the BAFTA win I'll go for that.
Animated shortBaoWhile Pixar and Disney isn't quite the 800-pound gorilla in this category as in the feature, they do have an advantage. And
Bao is quite good, is the first Pixar short directed by a female, and by Chinese-Canadian to boot, which I think is gonna be catnip for the voters.
Documentary shortPeriod. End of SentenceThe shorts categories are mostly a crap shoot, since it's incredibly difficult to get to see any of them unless you live in New York or Los Angeles. So any predictions are based on summaries and guess work.
Live action shortMarguerite
There's no way I'll do anywhere near as good as last year, this year was
hard.