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Oscar predictions 2019

Journal Entry: Sun Feb 24, 2019, 3:43 AM

It's time again for my Oscar predictions. Note that these are who I think WILL win, not necessarily who I think SHOULD win.

Best picture

Roma is the film to beat in this category. That said, the fact that it didn't win the PGA (which also uses a preferential ballot), the fact that it would be the first time a non-English spoken film would win, and that Netflix is behind it, makes me very unsure. The precursors have been all over the place, with Green Book taking the PGA, Black Panther getting the SAG and the WGA going for Eight Grade. But going for the favorite rarely disappoints at the Oscar and with a 6/9 streak for the DGA/BAFTA combination history will probably be made.

Best actor
Rami Malek

Haven't seen Bohemian Rhapsody, but I've heard Malek is excellent in it. He's won most of the precursors, and a win seems pretty much guaranteed.

Best actress
Glenn Close

This is the seventh time that Close is nominated, and everything points to that this will be the year she brings home the Oscar. Her only real competition is Olivia Colman (who's really excellent in The Favorite and won the BAFTA), but probably not enough to overcome the combination of beloved actress + it's her time + all the rest of the precursors.

Best supporting actor
Mahershala Ali

Ali has swept all of the precursors and basically only has two things against him. That he won the same category two years ago, and that Richard E. Grant is well-liked actor that has never won anything for his often excellent work. But odds are that Ali takes home his second Oscar.

Best supporting actress
Regina King

This one is tricky. Regina King looked pretty much unbeatable after winning the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice, but then wasn't nominated by SAG and lost to Rachel Weisz at the BAFTAs. But then SAG Award went to non Oscar nominated Emily Blunt, thereby throwing it completely open.

Best director
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

This category has just been totally dominated by Mexicans the last couple of years, with Cuarón, Iñárritu and del Toro taking turns winning it. If there's an upset it will be Spike Lee finally winning an Oscar, but don't count on it.

Original screenplay
The Favorite

This is an interesting category. It's mostly down to either Green Book or The Favorite, and will give a hint on how the evening will turn out. If Green Book wins, it will probably go on to win Best Picture.

Adapted screenplay

This one is all over the map. BlacKkKlansman won BAFTA, If Beale Street Could Talk won Critic's Choice and then the WGA went to Can You Ever Forgive Me? The Academy has a tendency to award more hipper auteurs here that are a little to daring for the more mayor awards, which is why I think Spike Lee will win.

Best animated feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This one usually goes to either the Pixar or Disney movie, no matter which movie deserves the award the most, and it's hard to argue that the highest grossing animated feature of all time Incredibles 2, from two time Oscar-winner Brad Bird wouldn't normally be the favorite. But against it is that the Academy doesn't like to award sequels (Toy Story 3 is the only sequel to have won), Brad Bird already has two Oscars, and the momentum is firmly on Spider-Verse's side.

Foreign language feature

This one comes down to how sure the voters are that Roma will win Best Picture. If they're pretty certain, expect Cold War to win, if they're in doubt they'll probably make sure that Roma at least wins this one.


The duel of the black and white movies. While Łukasz Żal won the ASC for Cold War, it's looking more likely that Alfonso Cuarón will become historic as the first director to win for shooting his own film.

Film editing
Bohemian Rhapsody

This category basically boils down to two choices. The more flashy editing of Vice, with lots of crosscutting, or the narrative that John Ottman saved the movie after Bryan Singer was fired. I'm leaning towards the latter.

Production design
The Favorite

Another hard one. The Academy loves costumed period dramas and the costumes in The Favorite are gorgeous and just exactly the type of movie they love to award. That said, Black Panther makes a non-existing place look like a real place with history. Looking at the precursors doesn't really help, the ADG and CDG chose to award both. Often the same movie wins both production and costume design, but I'm gonna go for a split choice. Either way I'll at least get one of them right.

Costume design
Black Panther

Makeup and Hairstyling

This usually goes to the movie with the most extravagant work, with a bonus to the nominee that's also nominated to Best Picture. It's hard to see how Vice doesn't win for transforming Christian Bale to eerily like Dick Cheney.

If Beale Street Could Talk

A fairly open category. Best Picture nominees have a slight advantage, which means BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther. That said, If Beale Street Could Talk seems to be the most talked about soundtrack.

Original song
Shallow, A Star Is Born

Yeah, this one's pretty given.

Sound editing
A Quiet Place

Sound editing is creating all of the sounds that are often missing from the recorded sound. The difference between this and Sound Mixing is often a bit diffuse. This one is really tricky. First Man is the kind of movie that usually would win, A Quiet Place makes you really aware of each and every sound, and Black Panther is a Best Picture nominee and the closest you get to a war movie. One of these will almost certainly win, but picking the right one is a guess work.

Sound mixing
Bohemian Rhapsody

Sound mixing is taking all the dialogue recorded, music, sound effects and so on, and mixing it together to a whole. This one almost always goes to a war film or a musical. Since there's no war movie this year, Bohemian Rhapsody is the closest.

Visual effects
Avengers: Infinity War

Honestly, Avengers: Infinity War should be the winner here, with several fully realized CGI characters, complex battle scenes, loads of environments and you know, that scene. It also won the Visual Effects Society top price. However, a superhero movie has not won this category since Spider-Man 2, which gives me pause.

Best documentary
Free Solo

It comes down to either RBG or Free Solo in this category, with very little to go on from the precursors since they mostly went to Won't You Be My Neighbor? RBG has a very topical subject, and with Ruth Bader Ginsburg getting hospitalized in the middle of the voting period, this is sure to get a lot of votes. But Free Solo is much more cinematic and with the BAFTA win I'll go for that.

Animated short

While Pixar and Disney isn't quite the 800-pound gorilla in this category as in the feature, they do have an advantage. And Bao is quite good, is the first Pixar short directed by a female, and by Chinese-Canadian to boot, which I think is gonna be catnip for the voters.

Documentary short
Period. End of Sentence

The shorts categories are mostly a crap shoot, since it's incredibly difficult to get to see any of them unless you live in New York or Los Angeles. So any predictions are based on summaries and guess work.

Live action short

There's no way I'll do anywhere near as good as last year, this year was hard.


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Yeah, I give them away frequently. I found you through the Random Deviant menu-link. I'm glad you enjoyed it, but you don't need to thank me. It makes my comments rather monotone with page after page of identical comments.


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germanjuarez Featured By Owner 5 hours ago  Hobbyist General Artist
thank u for the l l a m a !
your work is unique and original
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Thank you OwO
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Thank you!
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Thank you very much for the llama!
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Thanks for the :llama:
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Thank you for the llama :)
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Thanks for the llama!!!!
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Thank you for visiting my DA:D (Big Grin) 
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Thanks for the llama :) (Smile)

I couldn't resist. Sorry.
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