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dziadek1990's avatar

Ponyville Statistical Trivia: Life, Sex and Death.

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EDIT: Finally in pdf format.
Estimated time spent: 6-8 hours (lots of edits).

- PST Volume One - Population: [link]
- S1 & S2 character screentime analysis: [link]
- You can submit suggestions for my next analyses here: [link]
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EqFAzrael's avatar
how on earth did this manage to get past me in the group? Oh well. It's in. Moving on.
I don't think the assumption of chance of death on a given day as 1/x is super great. Ponies are more likely to die from natural causes if they're older, obviously. While it may be true that, on average, death chance per day per pony is 1/x, you get weird conclusions like 1 dead pony per week. That seems a little bit too fast to me, but that's just an intuition. I think its more realistic to think of generations of ponies dying around the same time. You'd have semi-distinct groups of ponies of similar ages, and have cycles of more and less death. And birth for that matter. 

Hm. That makes the problem a lot more complicated, though. And it may work out to be similar to your results on average anyway. Do you think it would make a difference or not? I don't really know much about population statistics.
dziadek1990's avatar
Not complicated. Dividing population by life duration is a perfect estimation for estimating death rate (if those two numbers are the only things you have). Ponies didn't get born at the same time, so there is no reason for waves of death to come.

If you choose a random pony, then the chance of its death on a given day is 1/life_duration_in_days

(BEFORE you check its age; if you learn it is old/young then you will KNOW it has a higher/smaller chance of death)

If we multiply the above fraction by the population, it gives us the daily death rate.

Estimations really ARE this simple. It would become complicated only if I used more information besides those two numbers in the calculations.
Finnect's avatar
Why assume ponies on average live 75 years? We've only seen a handful of old ponies and they seem far older (most are in the Apple family, which probably has very good genes). Either ponies living to old age is uncommon or they're shut out of daily life for some reason (which doesn't seem to be the case with Granny Smith and that guy with the glasses who keeps popping up in random places).

Why are mares in Ponyville pregnant for 9 months instead of 11 months as on Earth? And why between the ages of 20 and 50? In what appears to be an early industrial age society shouldn't ponies have children earlier? And if a mare has one foal in her life then why do so many of the mane six have at least one sibling (4/6 that we know of, and Pinkie Pie and Applejack both have two siblings each)?
dziadek1990's avatar
...and the Industrial Age Society thing... I am not that much of an analyzer... YET. I can put lots of effort into research, but clearly THIS is not of those things. I just half-assed it.
dziadek1990's avatar
The show has a lot of inconsistencies. Depending on the episode we see a either  zero males or old people or kids, while in others ("The Mysterious Mare Do Well", "Ponyville Confidential", "Hearts and Hooves day") we see suddenly more elderly, kids and stallions respectively.

Cheerilee's class has only nine seats, yet clearly there are more kids in Ponyville. My reasoning is that adult/young adult girls are most often in the view, while the rest of ponies tend to keep out of sight of the show's "cameras".

(but still, there is inconsistency about the size of the school  - it couldn't possibly fit all those kids... hmm... unless in Ponyville only a fraction of kids is at school at any given moment, like for example, first group of kids in early morning, second in the morning, third even later... .............nah... wouldn't fit. Too late study times for kids this age. Depends on a person if they'd like that assumption.)

Granny Smith's story about how she was a kid before Ponyville was even started suggests that MLPonies can live longer than humans.

As for the pregnancy duration thing - it just shows how (not) much research I've made. For convenience sake I just assumed they are like humans since, well, they ARE talking horses after all. ...probably in the future I'll be using both (human and horse traits) assumptions.
rocklee557's avatar
This reminds me alot of xkcd.
spyro360's avatar
wow these ponies die and mate alot o_O
dziadek1990's avatar
We still beat them by a large margin; almost 300.000 humans die worldwide every day (mostly due to old age, except in the 3rd world countries for obvious reasons).
spyro360's avatar
well said, btw your statistics are very intresting and admireable.
vadram's avatar
equines/horses/ponies have a pregnancy of 11 (not 9 as humans) months so that could change the number a little
TurtwigChampion's avatar
So in a way you could say their f*cking so much that it gives them a longer life expectancy and have many babies due to many mares?
Your calculation method II for the number of pregnant mares is not quite correct. This can be seen because, if every mare has only one foal in her lifetime, and only 0.75 of the population is mares, the the population must be decreasing (because the males are not being replaced). Thus, estimation method number II must always be strictly less than estimation method number I.

What did you do wrong? You divided the total mare population (2770) by less than the total lifetime (75 years). If you wish to use the 30-year period you described, you must restrict the mare population to those mares of an eligible age (which is approximately 30/75 of the mares, assuming every mare lives to precisely 75 and then drops dead).

Alternatively, you could divide by the total of 75 years. This is valid because the age distribution is (roughly) random, and thus every mare spends 9 months / 75 years pregnant.

Both revised estimations I gave result in an average number of pregnant mares in Ponyville of 27.2, not 68.
richfiles's avatar
The image caption on the final section...
:iconlunatrollplz:
Priceless!
F0xridley's avatar
You could get more pregnant mares if you used the gestation period of a horse (340 days).
Hammer-Of-Zeon's avatar
Wow, look at those statistics. Nicely done :D. I'm glad the extent of which I have to know statistics is the application of error analysis in any labs I might do. And well, tolerances for any measurements I make...
Mynameisnotdavid's avatar
Ow... My brain...
That hurt... :(
Evilmisssingno000's avatar
apparently you havent read his portal related deviant
good job anyway
dziadek1990's avatar
:) Thanks. Hmm, new thing learned: if you respond to someone else's comment, the creator of a deviation will not be notified.
dziadek1990's avatar
Mine, the opposite. I feel I didn't put enough effort into it. Half-assed some of that stuff. Will try to do better later.
Mynameisnotdavid's avatar
Half-assed? Are you STUPID!?
...
Okay, of course you'r not, but STILL! Don't be so negative! This is great! :lol:
Kobrakin's avatar
Another fascinating look at the demographics of our favorite technicolor equines. Also, I knew it was only a matter of time until that picture of Twilight came back to haunt her. :XD:
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