In the 1880s, European colonists came to the Horn of Africa to set up colonies. In this ATL, they fail amid fierce resistance from the local clans. One of these clans, the Majeerteen, goes on to unite the region, altering the course of history.
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2019 PredictionsIts that time of the year again, where we all attempt to guess just what the hell 2019 is gonna look like. Some stuff is set in stone other stuff is on the horizon, so here's Sean's 2019 Pre-Foot-in-Mouth Prediction Extravaganza!
It will be a year of anxiety, suspicion and fear of what the future holds as countries seek to delay the onset of crises they cannot avoid. A Cycle - Geopolitical Futures 2019 Report
The Global Economy will continue to slow and go into a recession no later than October.It will probably start in either Subprime Auto Loans or (and I'm leaning more in this direction) the Italian NPL crisis.The recession will mark the end of the economic system propped up by the Great Exporters (China and Germany), though the pain will not be evenly spread.Germany and China will suffer most of all, but the EU and particularly Britain will be in crisis mode for the rest of the year.Britain will give the Americans anyt
Second Renaissance: Future of the WarriorShocker, I subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, and I actually pay for their forecasts. Recently they offered George Friedman's first book, "The Future of War: Power, Technology and American World Dominance in the Twenty-first Century" as a free download to their paid subscribers. I'm only flipping through it for now, but its really quite fascinating. It was written in 1996 and its basically the ur text of everything we see from Friedman from when he founded STRATFOR forward. He also perfectly called out the inherent flaws in the perception of post-nationalism in 96' when there was virtually know reason to believe that Francis Fukuyama wasn't absolutely right when he wrote the End of History. It also predicted a lot of the progress towards the mass adoption of UAVs and hypersonic tech. Though some terms and ideas seem rather quaint with the benefit of hindsight. But the book is essentially a deep dive into his chapter on the future of War in the Next 100 Years, and he goes into far
The Need for a Pax AmericanaI was thinking recently about what the post-Cold War international order (from the American perspective anyway) might look like. I know I've often discussed the cold logic of geopolitics, but how we humans choose to structure our institutions is important for the short term, and the simple fact of the matter is that the post-World War II/Cold War international system is dying, exacerbated by right wing nationalists and/or Putin, sure, but its death is in many ways a generational inevitability. So what will the transition look like and what will the new order look like? I'm going to try and venture a guess. Read my piece about "The American Troubles" for a refresher course on some of the subjects I'll be discussing.
The International System
It is important to note just how much changed about the international order after World War II, really on an institutional level. The price of gold was set by t
The Nightmare ScenarioA recent poll was floated to Republican voters that showed a majority would be in favor of postponing the 2020 Presidential Election. I don't think this will happen, but I also thought Hillary Clinton was going to win in 2016, so let's assume the worst and play out the darkest timeline...
Let's assume the 2018 midterms are a repeat of 2016, and the Democrats can't get their shit together to win an outright majority in the House and/or Senate. Republicans are holding on by the skin of their teeth and know they're going to get creamed in 2020, and Trump pulls a Frank Underwood claiming some random terrorist attack, or situation in Korea or Iran so close to election day means the elections aren't safe and have to be postponed. The House of Representatives agrees, and Democrats and moderates scream bloody murder.
What happens next?
Several states ignore the President's orders (presumably to the FEC) and hold the election anyway, as the actual voting is carried out state-by-state. Trump los
Age of Intervention: The 10'sAfter the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Age of Interventions seemed over. It was not. It was meerly the begining...
2010s: Europe is starting to transform: As the EC did to Europe, the renewed Mediterrainian Union is bringing the EU, North Africa and the Middle East closer together against terror and reviving their economy, creating a healthier political enviroment in the Region. Due to the now soon icefree Northeast Passage,the newly formed Nordic Union is on a fast track to become an Economic Superpower, binding East and West. However, Putin's Eurasian Union is causing suspicion with its military buildup. It is a known secret that this was the main defence reason for the creation of the NU...
The Iran War in 2015-16, caused by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard-backed attack on the International Energy meeting in Baku, could easly had been turned into a new nightmare for NATO. However, lesson had been leard from 'Ganistan and Iraq, so the Western Intervention became one more akin to
The Roaring 2020sThis is a follow up to my Wargaming 2020 piece, and might be included into future edits of www.second-renaissance.wikia.com
2021 - Biden returns to the White House with the economy recovering and most job losses crawling back. He promises to return dignity to the White House and put people back to work. In his first 100 Days President Biden and the Democratic Congress push through a popular infrastructure plan and a forgiveness on student loan debt. Several amendments are passed to the Affordable Care Act closing the Medicaid gap and streamlining the enrollment process. Gerrymandering reform is pushed through at the state level, but takes a back seat at the federal level as Democrats stand to make big gains in the 2022 midterms with President Biden's centrist agenda, and the party does not want to risk giving the Republicans a chance to retake their majority. The Alt Right's furor has receded somewhat as the economy recovers
2022 - Democrats
Smashing the Window: Jurassic ParkI actually thought Jurassic World did a great job with the concept of cloned dinosaurs being old news, but it didn’t go far enough on the ramifications of that level of genetic engineering technology existing since the early 1990s. This world, while it would be very similar to OTL at first glance, should be drastically different in the field of medicine and biotechnology, which has ramifications throughout the 1990s and 2000s that make 2017 look very different.
The first is how InGen’s tech does away with a lot of diseases. Alzheimer’s, cancer, infertility, birth defects, etc. would all be gone in the First World. Organ failure is a thing of the past: need a new liver? Clone a new one. This even has ramifications for voluntary or “cosmetic” alterations: a MTF transsexual can have a womb grown just for them, which would likely bring the entire transgenderism issue to the political front far earlier than OTL.
Then there’s the concept of applying this g
The Great Reset Part IISo in light of the massive bummer I left you with in the previous journal entry The Great Reset;I thought I'd show you the light at the end of the tunnel, and talk about how the instability we are facing will lead to an American Golden Age.
The election of 2028 was one of the most dramatic of the last century with political disagreements leading to social unrest, violence, and the emergence of several fanatical right-wing cells, some of which will be sponsored by some of America's richest citizens fearing for the new order. If the new President is charismatic and an effective politician, he will be able to get the population to go along with his reforms without much turmoil, but if he's essentially an Andrew Jackson or Rutherford B. Hayes (too hot vs. too cold), his administration will see significant political upheaval. In either case, there will be fierce opposition from traditionalist for
The Great ResetSo I don't know if there's a preferred name for the era that we currently find ourselves in and the economic and social phenomena that define it, but I've taken to thinking of it as "the Great Reset," mostly because its a period that we'll look back on as when everything started to come undone and completely change from our economic structure to the basics of the social order that have been in place since the Enlightenment. So I want to take a few minutes of your time to talk about what I think will happen in summary. If you want the full smack go on over to http://second-renaissance.wikia.com/wiki/Timeline and read up, but please know that I haven't quite wrapped everything together yet. This is all forecasting of course, and I my track record is kinda spotting.
So for the next 10 years everything's going to keep getting worse. Automation isn't going to replace everyone's jobs, but its going to replace a lot of jobs, and the gig economy is going to become the new normal for
Updated: Wargaming 2020I've promised to do a proper piece on this after the new year, and given how muddy the waters are with the Russia investigation, the revelations about sexual misconduct among our political leaders, and recent acts by perspective candidates, I don't expect any analysis I make to have any teeth past maybe next summer. Things are just too chaotic at this point to make a political prediction with any confidence, so what I offer today will be just a rough guess at the next 2 years or so; really as an exercise to merge all the major issues I expect us to see going forward and how to best frame things.
2017 - The year closes out with the Russia investigation still ongoing and Mueller inching closer to the President. Michael Flynn's file is unsealed revealing that he is cooperating with Robert Mueller's team in exchange for immunity for his son. The race in Alabama comes down to the wire with many Republicans endorsing Doug Jones rather than Roy Moore and leading to the best showing of
HISTORICAL ATLAS OF EUROPEBy popular demand I have made this table to keep track of the HAoE project. Will be updated as more maps come out. Enjoy!
HISTORICAL ATLAS OF EUROPE TABLE OF MAPS:
ANCIENT EASTERN EMPIRES:
SUMER - AKKAD - UR - OLD ASSYRIA - OLD BABYLON - KASSITES - MINOANS - HITTITES - EGYPT - MYCENAEANS